Everything you thought you knew about Latino politics is meaningless and out of date, thanks to Donald Trump of all people and his stunning, historic political comeback, made possible in part by Latino men. Surely, Latina political patron saint Gloria Molina must be tossing in her grave.
The latest election results are making one thing clear: Latino men were pivotal in shaping the presidential outcome—and Donald Trump appears to be the beneficiary of a surprising shift.
In Pennsylvania, Trump garnered 40% of the Latino vote, up from 30% in 2020, and according to NBC’s exit polls, 45% of Hispanic voters nationwide cast their ballots for him, marking a significant 9-point increase from four years ago. Most notably, Trump won Latino men by a 10-point margin, reversing a 23-point advantage Joe Biden held in 2020. So, what happened?
To answer this, we have to look at what Latino voters, particularly men, found appealing about Trump’s campaign and what they found alienating about Kamala Harris’s. Some conservative commentators, like Mike Gonzalez of The Heritage Foundation, suggest that the left’s “woke” agenda alienated many Hispanic voters. Issues that align with traditional values—such as gender roles, family, and religious beliefs—play a significant role for many Hispanic men.
Gonzalez argues that an overemphasis on identity politics, especially in areas like race and gender, created a divide. “The Left took extreme positions,” Gonzalez told The Daily Signal. “This turned off Hispanics, who know people cannot change sex and that boys should not be competing in girls’ sports or using female bathrooms.” These points may resonate with many Latino voters who value tradition and believe in a certain social stability.
For instance, the term “Latinx”—a gender-neutral descriptor that some progressive groups use—has become emblematic of this cultural disconnect. While well-intentioned, its frequent use has struck a sour note with many Hispanic communities. A September survey from the advocacy group The LIBRE Initiative showed that the term “Latinx” is outright unpopular among Hispanics, with only 3% embracing it and a vast majority preferring traditional terms like “Hispanic” or “Latino.” Pushing such terms, without broader support, risked alienating precisely those voters the left needed to engage.
But while cultural values might explain some of the shift, economic factors have also driven support. Among many Latino men, there’s a respect for entrepreneurship, economic opportunity, and upward mobility—values Trump consistently aligned himself with. In particular, Trump’s emphasis on revitalizing industries, cutting regulations, and a pro-business agenda has appeal. Many Hispanic men, whether they’re running a small business or working to provide for their families, resonate with Trump’s promise to cut through government red tape and let free enterprise flourish.
In fact, Trump’s framing of himself as a champion of the working class found an audience among Hispanic men who see themselves as hustling for success and stability. This election was held amidst inflation and economic uncertainty, and a survey by LIBRE revealed that three-quarters of Hispanics felt the country was on the wrong track.
Rising costs and economic insecurity were top of mind, and Trump’s promises to reinvigorate the economy may have sounded particularly enticing against the backdrop of inflation that’s hit food, gas, and housing costs.
Then there’s the question of family, often at the core of Hispanic identity. Trump’s appeal to family and traditional values speaks to Latino men who see themselves as protectors and providers.
The emphasis on law and order, as well as national pride, resonates with those who prioritize safety and stability for their families. While some political analysts see Trump’s rhetoric as divisive, others argue it struck a chord with Latino men who fear that progressive policies could erode their communities.
Yet Trump’s gains with Latino men didn’t come out of nowhere; they reflect a trend that’s been building over the years. In 2020, he already improved on his 2016 performance among Hispanics, particularly men, and analysts are now acknowledging that the Hispanic electorate is not a monolith.
The assumption that Latino men align with Democrats has proven simplistic. As Gonzalez points out, Hispanic voters come from diverse backgrounds—Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Salvadoran who did Trey boat for do you know?and have diverse values and priorities. Over the years, the Latino electorate has shown itself to be less ideologically predictable than many pundits would have assumed.
Of course, another question looms: are these votes really for Trump, or are they votes against what the left has become? In recent years, the Democratic Party has taken up progressive causes that don’t necessarily resonate with Hispanic communities, especially those outside of large metropolitan areas.
With Latino men, there’s a sense that they don’t want America’s values, laws, or language to stray too far from their understanding of traditional norms. Many have strong ties to the Catholic Church or other Christian denominations, where they’re taught that traditional family structures and certain moral beliefs are sacred. Policy proposals that appear to threaten these norms may unintentionally drive these voters rightward.
Now, there are no simple answers to this phenomenon. As American political identities continue to shift, assumptions about Hispanic loyalty to Democrats are no longer a given. The notion that Latinos automatically lean blue, based on issues like immigration or social services, is outdated.
This demographic is young, with a median age of just 30, but they are also increasingly affluent and upwardly mobile. They may not see themselves as beneficiaries of government assistance so much as self-starters who’ve worked to achieve what they have.
There’s also the reality that many Latino men may find a kindred spirit in Trump’s personality—one that values toughness, self-confidence, and a willingness to challenge the establishment. For men who came to this country to build a better life for themselves and their families, who value independence and the grit to keep pushing forward, Trump’s brash attitude may be seen as a badge of honor rather than a liability.
What remains to be seen is whether this trend among Latino men will continue to grow, or if it will shift again in future elections. Trump’s success with this group is undeniably complex. While some might argue it’s a simple matter of shared values or economic interests, others will say it’s a reaction to an overly progressive left that many Hispanics feel no longer represents them.
One thing is clear: the Latino electorate is not what many thought it was. Latino men, especially, are proving themselves to be independent-minded voters who are willing to consider alternative choices if they feel their values and aspirations aren’t being recognized.
This isn’t simply a referendum on Trump’s policies, but a signal to Democrats that cultural sensitivity, particularly regarding issues of identity and family values, must be central to any strategy for future elections.
The role of Latinos, and Latino men in particular, also appears to have played out in Nevada. There Trump not only won but also may have helped oust a Democratic U.S. senator by a narrow margin. And the difference may have come in Clark County, where Latinos—who make up almost a third of the population—apparently voted in record numbers for Trump.
If there’s a lesson in Trump’s performance with Latino men, it’s that political parties cannot rely on assumptions or stereotypes. The Latino vote must be earned, and Latino men are looking for leadership that respects their values, understands their struggles, and addresses their aspirations.
As the nation digests the outcome of this election, this trend reminds us that identity politics has limits and that every vote, in the end, is up for grabs.
TONY CASTRO, the former award-winning Los Angeles columnist and author, is a writer-at-large and the national political writer for LAMonthly. org. He is the author of the forthcoming novel The Book of Marilyn. He can be reached at tony@tonycastro.com.
