If He Wins, Joe Biden Will Soon Turn 82
Not long after leaving office, the 38th president of the United States imagined a scenario in which a future president might tragically die in office, creating the opportunity for his vice president — possibly a woman — to make history.
Almost a decade after he had left the White House, former President Gerald Ford was asked what advice he could give a young schoolgirl who already had designs on becoming the first woman president of United States.
Ford effectively told the young lady she should follow his own path the White House: become vice president and then perhaps a stroke of luck or national tragedy would do the rest?
Appointed to the vice presidency in 1973 to replace the disgraced Spiro Agnew, Ford succeeded President Richard Nixon a year later when the Watergate Scandal-tainted chief executive resigned to avoid impeachment conviction and removal from office.
Even so, Ford likely didn’t envision a woman being elected president in his lifetime or beyond. But perhaps he foresaw a hint of the future and the creative idea behind the critically acclaimed Emmy-winning HBO political satire “Veep.”
In that series Vice President Selina Meyer, played by Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, surprisingly finds herself promoted to the Oval Office when the president abruptly resigns due to his wife’s mental health crisis.
What exactly was it that President Ford had said when he answered the schoolgirl’s question?
“I hope we do have a young lady at some point become president of United States… Either the Republican or Democratic party will nominate a man for president and a woman for vice president, and the woman and the man will win.… and in the term of office of the president, the president will die, and the woman will become president under the law or Constitution.”
It was not the most hopeful of predictions especially for women in America back in 1989. It is no more hopeful today, 35 years later. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic nomination in 2016, but there is the questionable distinction of her going down in history for having lost the future of the country to Donald Trump.
And with the 2024 election just months away, it does not seem likely that we will see a woman as the nominee of either major party, removing any realistic possibility of any woman becoming president in the foreseeable future.
But then how was it Gerald Ford put it when he answered the question?
“I will tell you how I think it will happen,” he said, “because it won’t happen in the normal course of events…”
And today, of course, it is impossible to ignore that Kamala Harris is vice president serving under Joe Biden, who at 81 is already the oldest sitting president in American history. He will turn 82 just a few weeks after the 2024 election. If he is re-elected, Biden would be 86 at the end of his second term.
It is not as if this is not on the minds of people covering Washington. In midsummer, TheHill.com — the Washington, D.C.-based American newspaper and digital media company covering the presidency and Congress — even boldly raised the issue that few wish to discuss openly: “How likely is it that President Joe Biden would live to finish his second term if he were reelected?”
TheHill.com quoted Katia Iervasi, a lead writer and spokesperson at NerdWallet who has made a study of aging men and their likelihood of survival.
According to Iervasi: “An 80-year-old male like Biden has a 31.35 percent chance of dying in the next five years, and a 64.27 percent chance of dying within the next 10 years. In other words, there is almost a one-in-three chance Biden would not finish his second term.”
Throw in other considerations, such as Biden being no ordinary man but president of the United States, one of the most stressful jobs in the world, and the “one-in-three chance” may seem overly optimistic.
“Given those factors,” TheHill.com concluded, “it might be reasonable to bump up Biden’s 31.35 percent chance of dying in office to perhaps 50 percent. Thus, it is highly possible, perhaps even probable, that a Biden reelection victory would result in Kamala Harris becoming the first female president.”
If so, in the eyes of some, Gerald Ford may have been a better prognosticator than president. And the 38th President of the United States predicted more.
“Men better be careful,” he warned. “Once that barrier is broken, (men) better be careful because (they will) have a hard, hard time even getting a nomination in the future.”
TONY CASTRO, the former award-winning Los Angeles columnist and author of “Chicano Power” (E.P. Dutton, 1974), is a writer-at-large and national political writer with LAMonthly.org. “Chicano Power” will be republished in a 50th anniversary edition in late 2024. He can be reached at tony@tonycastro.com.
