He’s Been in Israel, Land of Faith & Miracles
Now, given events since last October 7, the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza and the ongoing heavily pro-Palestinian protests at college campuses across the United States, could the Saving Israel proven Jewish vote come into play in this California Senate race as never before in American politics?
By TONY CASTRO
National Political Writer, LAMonthly.org
Steve Garvey may not really know the Saving Israel political history of the Middle East, but he’s aware of how it gives him a chance to upset the heavily favored Adam Schiff in their U.S. Senate race.
He also knows baseball and World Series history — and how sometimes the strongest, most powerful teams come up short against an opponent of destiny.
The 1960 Mickey Mantle-Roger Maris New York Yankees stunningly humbled by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The 1988 Bash Brothers Jose Canseco-Mark McGwire Oakland A’s kept from their destiny by the Los Angeles Dodgers, inspired by Kirk Gibson’s dramatic Game 1 winning home run.
As Garvey often tells his supporters, much as he did when he celebrated in Palm Desert on primary night:
“Welcome to the California comeback. What you are all feeling tonight is what it’s like to hit a walk-off home run.”
“Keep the evening of November 5th open, as we will celebrate again. They say in the general election that we are going to strike out. You know what? That’s from the crowd that believes in the status quo.”
Now, given events since last October 7 — the war in the Gaza and the ongoing heavily pro-Palestinian protests at college campuses across the country — could the usually liberal and proven Democratic Jewish vote come into play in this Senate race in the most surprising fashion ever in American politics?
Garvey is gambling that it will, and he has stepped up his Saving Israel campaign to improve his chances of winning his Senate race.
Placing first in California’s top-two primary the Democratic Congressman Schiff is the odds-on favorite heading into the November election against the former L.A. Dodgers legend Garvey, the Republican who finished in second place in the primary but who is considered a long shot at winning a California statewide election.
Their matchup was good news for Schiff, whose campaign shelled out tens of millions of dollars elevating Garvey’s name among Republican voters to make sure of that outcome. The ad blitz helped shut out progressive Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who could have posed a formidable threat to Schiff in the general election.
But Schiff’s initial defense of Israel in the Gaza war — at odds with progressives pushing for a permanent ceasefire — could discourage some Democrats from voting in the race, some warned. And his subsequent apparent softening on his position has made him appear weak and ineffectual to others.
Not to mention the unforgettable scene of chants for a ceasefire in Gaza breaking out minutes into Schiff’s primary victory speech, bringing the celebration in Los Angeles to a halt.
Seeing a possible opening on that issue, Garvey just spent a week in Israel, his campaign saying he was trying to get a better understanding of the conflict in the Middle East so that he could best serve in Saving Israel?
“Where others won’t go, my campaign will,” Garvey posted on X, formerly Twitter. “If you haven’t heard, I’m in Israel this week. On Monday — Day 1 — I met with current and former officers with the @idf and was briefed on the war. I then met with the family of one of the hostages taken on the Oct. 7th massacre at the Nova Music Festival, Guy Gilboa-Dalal.
“Now more than ever, the people of Israel need to know that the United States stands with them. Israel has every right to defend its sovereignty and defeat Hamas. It’s one thing to watch what is happening to Israel on TV, it’s another to be here, look the people in their eyes and hear their stories.
“With this experience, I’ll return to California with an even deeper understanding of the complex geo-political challenges facing our greatest ally in the Middle East, their relationship with the United States, the region, and the rest of the world.
In Israel Garvey met Samara Aileen Weiner in Tel Aviv who told the GOP candidate, “On behalf of every Democrat who is Jewish, feeling this way, thank you for your support.“
“(She) lives in Burbank, in @AdamSchiff’s congressional district. She’s a Jewish attorney and longtime Democratic voter who has voted for Adam Schiff in the past elections. After observing my trip to Israel and meeting me today, she shared that she’s now on Team Garvey!”
Still, conventional wisdom says Garvey’s primary surprise may likely set him up for a loss in November:
There are not enough Republican voters — or GOP donors — in California to propel him to victory, and no national GOP groups will invest much in winning a statewide seat in deep-blue California, said Republican strategist Jon Fleischman.
“The math doesn’t make sense to try to win California at the expense of spending all that money on states where they can be a lot more competitive,” he said.
Regardless, the Schiff-Garvey runoff means that, for the first time in more than 30 years, California will be represented by two male senators (Alex Padilla was elected in 2022).
“We have two old white men in this incredibly diverse and dynamic state … fighting to replace Dianne Feinstein’s seat,” said Thad Kousser, professor of political science at the University of California San Diego. “This looks like your grandfather’s California.”
Schiff, the most prolific fundraiser in this race, spent $38 million to both secure his own spot in the general and effectively handpick his opponent in November. What lies ahead for him is likely a clear path to victory: In deep-blue California, no Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 when Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection as governor.
He can now spend some of his campaign war chest on Democrats in California’s down-ballot races and use his fundraising power to benefit other Democrats that would help establish him as a “national Democratic leader,” Kousser said.
“He’s shown that he’s one of the fundraising stars of his party. And once you secure your seat, you’ve got to use that star power to help your team rather than just yourself,” he said.
Former President Donald Trump’s influence has loomed large in the race and may be here to stay.
Schiff has fundraised off Trump’s name, touting his role leading the first impeachment trial against Trump in 2020. He has cashed in on Trump’s attacks on him and the vote by a Republican-controlled House to censure Schiff over his comment during investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia.
Garvey — who said he voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 — has so far declined to say whether he would support Trump in November, arguing it’s his “personal choice.” But Schiff’s campaign has portrayed Garvey as a far-right candidate associated with Trump in his ad blitz.
“All people know about him is that he stands with Trump, because that’s what the Adam Schiff commercials will make it look like,” Kousser said.
Garvey’s vague stance on Trump, however, has not hurt his chances with Republicans, Kousser noted.
While some Republican candidates in California can’t afford to criticize Trump due to their deep-red base, in a statewide race, “you can’t win a general election in California as the Donald Trump candidate,” he said.
Garvey thinks he may be able to change that.
But will Garvey’s presence be enough to energize GOP voters in the general election?
Garvey’s message and vision could find its audience with some voters, who are looking for a different brand of Republican Party, Kousser said.
“If Steve Garvey … articulates that vision, especially if that vision can change the Republican brand in some people’s minds from the party of Donald Trump to … a party of Steve Garvey and other people like him, that can help start the long-term project of getting the Republicans back.”
“Know this: It ain’t over till it’s over,” Garvey said, quoting the late Yankee catcher Yogi Berra. “It’s true in baseball and it’s true in politics.”
TONY CASTRO, the former award-winning Los Angeles columnist and author of “Chicano Power” (E.P. Dutton, 1974), is a writer-at-large and national political writer with LAMonthly.org. “Chicano Power” will be republished in a 50th anniversary edition in late 2024. He can be reached at tony@tonycastro.com.
