The most recent CNBC Survey found that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump had a 5-point lead with Latino voters against Biden. The number is remarkable because three months earlier, Biden held a 7-point lead over Trump among Latino voters in the same poll.
By TONY CASTRO
Why is the President of the United States, with all the power of the incumbency behind him, apparently at serious risk of losing the critical Latino Vote in November against a former President Donald Trump, who has labeled Latinos “rapists”, drug smugglers, and criminals; who built a wall across the U.S.-Mexico border; who separated undocumented children from their parents; and who sought in court to end the “Dreamers” program?
Is it fair to ask? Are Latinos just self-hating Americans, gluttons for injustice and discrimination? Or is there something behind their remarkable numbers for Trump, so far ahead that he is looked upon as the presumptive GOP nominee — not a majority but enough who could sway the election — that mystifies analysts, political writers and self-righteous Democrats who have never understood nor trusted the Latino vote to begin with?
Historically Democrats have always regarded Latinos as one of the party’s most loyal voter groups nationally, often being the bedrock in winning California and other southwestern states.
But Trump is threatening to change that, according to polls showing a slow but steady loss of Latino support by President Joe Biden — warning signs that he could be at risk of losing his party’s hold on a key voting bloc that helped elect Biden in 2020.
Of course, this is nothing new, dating back to almost every presidential election since 1960 when Viva Kennedy Clubs among Latinos first called attention to what was then the country’s second largest minority group. Since then, Latinos have surpassed African Americans as the largest minority group in the country, and potentially the nation’s largest minority voting block as well — potentially because Latinos are notoriously poor in turning out for elections, far lower proportionately than whites or African Americans.
Nevertheless, in almost each of those elections since 1960 there has been grumbling among Latinos of being taken for granted by the Democrats and the creation of increasing numbers of Republican support groups among Latinos.
In 2004, President George W. Bush carried almost 40% of the Latino vote nationally in winning reelection, which is believed to be a historic high. Some analysts also believe that a Republican nominee carrying anywhere from 30% to a third of the Latino vote in a presidential election would likely win the White House in an otherwise close campaign.
In other words, Latinos can be the balance of power “swing vote” in determining an election for a Republican nominee without that candidate having to win a majority of the Latino vote.
It all adds more fat to the mumbo-jumbo of American politics that is often misunderstood and misinterpreted by even the savviest of Democratic-leaning political pundits, especially Latinos crunching numbers for either of the two major parties.
This year Democratic Latino strategists have been quick to explain that when media organizations report that Trump is winning over Latino voters, that it is not a majority of them, but only a plurality, if that, in the polls — which is true. At the same time, GOP strategists counter that all the Republican nominee would have to do is capture another 8 to 10% of the Latino vote to change the election dramatically — which is true as well.
What neither is able to explain, is why Latino voters, even in only incrementally, continue drifting to the Republican party.
I can offer a personal anecdote about my family and its change from being loyal Democratic voters through the 1970s and dramatically changing to loyal Republican voters in the 1980s, about the time that Texas started becoming a red state — as did many of their fellow Roman Catholic congregants at church and the friends at local social organizations.
“I have grown up with white racists, work with him, know them and how they will behave,” my father once told me when I pressed him on why he had a Republican. “But the white liberal and progressives that you’re most comfortable with are a breed apart who act and behave as if they’re my personal friends and want only the very best for me and my family. But I know that only extends until it encroaches or conflicts with what they want. And then they turn on us in a dime.
“The devil you know is better than the angel you don’t know.”
TONY CASTRO, the former award-winning Los Angeles columnist and author of “Chicano Power” (E.P. Dutton, 1974), is a writer-at-large with LAMonthly.org. “Chicano Power” will be published in a 50th anniversary edition in 2024. He can be reached at tony@tonycastro.com.
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Biden’s plunge among Latinos is a fresh warning sign to Democrats that the party could be at risk of losing its hold on a key voting bloc that helped elect Biden in 2020.
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Biden’s performance with Latino voters is not just lagging relative to Trump — it is trending downward overall. In December 28% of Latino adults approved of Biden as president, down from 35% in October.
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Biden has come under fire from Latino Democratic policy leaders such as Senator Alex Padilla of California, who have cautioned him that his concessions in border enforcement negotiations with Republicans could potentially cost him politically in November.
